Antepost accas 2013/14

Discussion in 'The Glory Hole' started by hotspur, Aug 22, 2013.

  1. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    PADDY POWER

    Wolves win 1-3,Burton/York/Plymouth prom,Aberdeen/Motherwell,Arbroath,Saracens,Gatehead 14-1/Braintree 12-1/Cambridge 9-4/Alfreton 8-1 to be promoted


    24 at 1 pound BANK 142

    prices not stated are as previous post
  2. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    GOOD NEWS!!!

    Once I have bet the last of my bank on this thread Im fully intending that to be my last involvement with gambling forums for the rest of my life.

    Its true that Im currently posting on another forum concerning these bets but its not a gambling forum and I don't intend to be posting there next season.

    I sincerely don't think gambling forums are the best place or way to go about telling people about these bets.And for more than one reason.Several reasons in fact .And I very much want and intend to get about 300 people to take up these bets on a serious basis in the next 2-3 years ideally.

    (I have already explained why on another thread but if you don't buy that explanation the fact is Ive always been extremely curious to know how other people would do these bets and whether the market would be affected in any way.I believe the market would be unaafected for various reasons but a friend of mine believes bookies would be forced to place many more restrictions.

    Its true that it could cause the bookies some headaches.Let me give an example.Bet 365 have very low max payouts for certain lower leagues and any group of people suspected of collusion would be restricted in theory to this low limit max payout.
    BUT that would be very hard to do without affecting perfectly innocent people who may have only included one or two similar selections in their bets.Thats a very simple example.There are other situations Id love to see.


    Theres also finding out whether I was right about these bets. Can ANYONE really do these bets.If they are in fact easier than other betting on football then much of the info on gambling forums would be rendered er out of date.

    But I accept that its unlikely anyone would realize so effectively it probably wont make a difference.

    No harm in trying to find out though.


    I also don't ever want to be accused of 'boasting' ever again and I don't see how its possible to get people on gambling forums to take them seriously unless I did thread after thread all of which made good profits.

    The point being that surely THAT would constitute 'showing off'!? I really cant see why 'showing off' is ok but mentioning previous wins is considered beyond the pale/pail(?).Especially as no one ever believes the latter anyway.But hey

    A friend of mine pointed out to me that if you think about it theres really only one way to get the message across to sufficient people WITHOUT being accused of boasting. And thus with his help that's what we are going to do.

    However,the really great thing is that now that Thundercelt is doing a thread and is likely to be successful we need not argue about wherther Im right about it being hard to get the message across on gambling forums with one hand tied behind your back as it were.

    Because we will now all get to see whether TCs thread gets people interested in these bets AND crucially doing them in preference to other bets.

    I believe theres next to no chance of that happening because apart from anything else I think people need to understand WHY or HOW bets make a profit befiore they can bet confidently.

    Because betting isn't JUST about opinions.Oh no.Its about how confident you are in your opinions.And where that confidence came from.

    ANYWAY,we shall see what we shall see but I wont be holding my breath



    Now,having said all that.WHAT IF THIS THREAD SHOULD LOSE!!??

    Iwont be here to say anything so I will say something now.

    The really really great thing about the wonderful Land of (Bet)Nod is that its different to other betting forums! Yep.

    See,on any other forum,if I lost, I would be told that of course these bets aren't profitable.Its really stuuuuuuupid to think they could be.And Id have some mathematician explaining the maths to me like Im some idiot.Yadda yadda yadda.

    But not here!NOT HERE.No Sir!!

    Here, ALL they would do is say that I ,hotspur,dont know how to do the bets.

    Much much less of an insult.

    Because of course I would simply be being told that I don't know how to do something that vitually no serious gambler believes is possible anyway.

    That would pretty much be the kindest thing anyones ever said to me on here.

    But anyway...Im going to PROVE right now that,no matter what happens,I know HOW to do these bets!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    WHAT!!!!? How can that be possible hotspur,you may be thinking(or not)! Simples.Here goes nothing.......


    There are only really 3 ways you can lose at gambling.Yes?

    Bad selectons,bad luck or taking too much risk.Yes?

    Well, if this thread loses it will almost certainly be by a very very fine margin.Maybe a single point or one goal even.

    THUS you cant really say its the selections.Not if I lose by a tiny margin.Not without looking like a cunt anyway.

    So that leaves RISK.(I cant be bothered with luck).

    And so the way to do these bets is........................................................................................drumroll.........


    Take less risk.


    TADDAHHHHH.


    Okie dokie.Well that was easy.Hope to be back with todays crucial bets.


    What? Why didn't I take less risk in the first place you arrogant cunt,you ask?

    Well,quite simply,thats how I bet 1000 pounds.I will happily risk 300 or even more for a chance to win 1000 or more.

    And in reality I would add about 200 to my bank at this stage in order to hedge certain postions that are clearly very strong.

    Not to do so would be daft but on gambling forums there are people who think that risking your bank or adding to it artificially are against the 'rules' of gambling.

    But ,apart from bookies/legal rulesthere are no rules in gambling..


    .......in fact there is no right or wrong way to gamble........


    from the book by Joseph Buwolski(sic)who has been mentioned in glowing terms on this very forum and who used to post on PL


    Not only do I believe that antepost accas are the best way for most people to bet on football,I also believe that the best way to use them is by taking calculated risks.

    If you are gonna hedge the fuck out of them I think youd be better off sticking to singles. I really do
  3. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    NB I am very very pushed for time this morning.

    Its very very important that I get a bet on Hamiton.A big one.And I will be wanting to include the to be bottom market in the Prem.No idea who the 12.45 game is as yet But hopefully it doesn't affect the bottom.
  4. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,155
    Don't justify yourself - you're friends don't need it and your enemies won't believe you anyway.

    And yes - I wish I could learn that too

    Basically if you post winning tips - boast as much as you like - people will not care but your record prior to this thread was not of a winning tipster.

    If this thread reverses that then fair play to you

    The thread is not really necessary though as Thundercelt has already proven your ideas to be correct - something you were given credit for on the relevant thread.

    But thanks for this thread anyway - it's given me many new ideas.
  5. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,600
    Not surprised after your previous post, you don't half go on sometimes don't you?
    Punter likes this.
  6. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,616
    :lol
  7. kompressaur

    kompressaur spam removed by komp

    Messages:
    1,451
    from the book by Joseph Buwolski​

    I met Joe at Cheltenham 2004. Buchanal???? Nice fella whos name everyone forgets.

    Hows the book going hotspur? Hope your well yourself.
  8. kompressaur

    kompressaur spam removed by komp

    Messages:
    1,451
    Has betnod got no quote button or is it just me? :unsure
  9. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Halifax 8-1 ,York 6-1 generally both to be promoted 8 pounds

    As above but Reading as well at 6-1 generally 2 pound treble


    BANK 132
  10. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Gonna be betting on Atletico,Barca and Man Utd to win the Champs Lge but have only just woken up.Need to have a look at other prices esp betvics.

    Hopefully I can do it before 6 minutes have been played.The stakes I will commit myself to are 8 pounds Barca,6 pounds Atletico,2 pounds Man Utd.
  11. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Damn it,realistically I cant do it before 8-05 .But the only advavtage I can get would be from the Utd game.If they have a chance then it could affect the other selections I put with it so I will do that now off the top of my head.

    Utd champs lge 33-1,Sunderland/Cardiff bottom,Hamilton,Crewe/Colchester rel,Annan hcp 2 pounds
    ie 50p each bet

    NB and if its not too late I will have 10 pounds on Barca
  12. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    BETVIC Sunderland/Cardiff bottom,Rotherhm/Preston prom,Southend/Plymouth top 7,Annan hcp,Hamilton,Atletico


    8 bets at 75 p


    As above but Barca instead of Atletico and no Annan 8 bets at 1.25.



    Need to see who else is playing now and whether there was a goal
  13. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Bloody hell.Out of time again.

    Right,Braintree are playing tonight and I need to get a bet on urgently.I cant make the 7.45 ko as I need to do something else.

    I will commit to 12 pounds now.
  14. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    That's Braintree in the handicap at 9-4.Bloody betvic weren't even offering any odds on them til yesterday -ie they only had Alfreton and Nuneaton on the site and I couldn't ask for a price cos Im banned.
  15. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    BETVIC

    Braintree hcp 9-4,Annan hcp 2-5,Celtic hcp 4-11,Oxford top 7 8-15,Nth Ferriby* win 10-11,Stevenage 6-4/Shrews 9-4 bottom,Sunderland 4-6 bottom

    2 bets @ 3

    As above but no Nth Ferriby 2 bets @ 3


    *Altringham in action as I wrote this but were 1 up last I loooked
  16. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    BETVIC

    Sunderland bottom 4-6,Celtic hcp 4-11,Peterhead hcp 11-2,Braintree hcp5-2,Stevenage bottom 6-4

    6

    As above but Shrews 9-4 instead of Stevenage 3

    Sunderland bottom 4-6,Stevenage/Shrews bottom 6-4/9-4,Rhodes top scorer 9-2,Braintree hcp 5-2

    2 @ 4

    Braintree hcp,Hamilton 7-4,Shrews bottom 9-4,Peterhead hcp 3


    Total 20
  17. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    As its Easter and Im therefore bored out of my mind and waiting for some crucial games today to begin, I am going to use the approaching end of my time on forums to start explaining why I believe that antepost accumulators are the best way for most people to bet on football.


    1) There are NO STATISTICS involved.

    First let me elaborate.I mean that there is no need at all to ever find out any long term stats in order to decide who to bet on.

    This is a HUGE advantage over normal betting.The reason being that it saves so much time.

    Its very important to realize that pretty much anyone who is capable of making a regular profit from betting could make at least as much money doing other things if they spent the same amount of time doing it!

    So if you can make a profit from a form of betting that requires little work then you can spend the time saved making money elsewhere.

    This may seem obvious but the amount of time taken is never mentioned on gambling forums.Yet time is always an issue.Its the most valuable thing we have.


    Now,there appear to be people on gambling forums who believe they can make money from mainstream football 90 minute markets without the use of stats.

    But I have NEVER EVER come across a single example of ANYONE making regular MEANINGFUL profits from football betting without having an extensive knowledge of stats OR access to somebody who does.

    This does not mean you cant make money from betting on football results without stats. There are in fact several situations which happen in football on a regular basis that appear to be profitable.

    Problem is they don't occur frequently enough to make significant money from them.

    The most obvious example is betting against a lower league team(in virtually any country) that has just pulled off a giant killing act in a cup competition.

    Another less(?) well known one is betting on teams that apparently have little to play for at the end of the season.So many people bet on the team with something at stake that the odds are usually skewed.


    SO,no stats in antepost accumulators meaning far less work is involved in doing them.
    Last edited: Apr 18, 2014
  18. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Right.Been up all night and finding it hard to concentrate.

    Motherwell play Celtic today in a crucial game for the hcp market. As usual betvics prices are somewhat baffling to me.Inverness are 9-2 yet Motherwell,surely the better team,are 12-1.


    Theres no doubt about it,Im about 150 pounds short of what I need in my position to virtually guarantee a profit.

    Very sorry to labour the point but in real life this simply wouldn't be a problem. In the 15 years I have been doing these bets,ONLY ONCE!!,did I use my bank perfectly.

    (And I certainly have gone way over my bank with my own bets this season!)

    On several occaisions I borrowed money off friends and maxed out my credit card and overdraft in order to hedge bets.And on the other occaisions I took a risk.

    I would have been alright if Id paid a bit more attention to a couple of bets a month ago which I pointed out at the time.

    But the 3 point deduction for Alfreton has made a big difference as well.Because if they had those points I would have been able to get a bigger price on Braintree(and if necessary,Nuneaton.)


    HOWEVER,having said that,only bad luck should stop me making a profit.

    Dundee and McCormack is 600 pounds.Annan and Celtic hcp should be 1000 pounds since Id be very surprised to see York slip up now

    And of course theres the Celtic Shrews/Stevenage Alfreton positon.

    The question is how to hedge those positions with, what, just 100 left approx.And indeed should they be hedged.Why not just let them ride and take the risk as I said I often do?

    Well,the best reason to hedge is because the prices on offer are good.And Mwell and Peterheads prices are acceptable.And so is Hamiltons.

    BUT I don't have enough to hedge them all,dammit!



    BETVIC

    Mwell hcp 12-1,Peterhead hcp 11-2 8 pounds

    Alfreton hcp 9-4,Mwell hcp 12-1,Shrews bottom 2-1 4 pounds

    Peterhead hcp 11-2,Hamilton 7-4,Shrews bottom 2-1,Braintree hcp 4-5 3 pounds.


    Im gonna have to leave it there as I need fucking sleep.
  19. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    OH MY GAAAAAAAAWWWWWWDDDDDD.

    Ive just seen todays results.


    IM GOING TO LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

    :eek:
  20. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,155
    Maxing out on your credit cards :eek

    Surely the first rule of gambling is to only risk money you can afford to lose

    ie to view it as entertainment.

    Surely if your bank was 1000 points then at no stage should you have risked more than 100?

    There again - what do I know?

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