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Day 1 - Tuesday 13th March 2018

Discussion in 'CHELTENHAM 2018' started by Punter, Feb 27, 2018.

  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,771
    [​IMG]
    Capture.PNG
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 9, 2018
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Race times should be the same for all four days, i.e

    130
    210
    250
    330
    410
    450
    530
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Little plug for Bet365, Paddy Power and Skybet who are the only ones going non-runner no bet on all races.

    Bet365 deserve the most plaudits because they are also best odds guaranteed and will usually take a bet whereas Skybet are a joke of a company who will offer extra places on the day but will only let you have 80p each way on if you win a few bets with them. Paddy Power usually offer something extra on day one so I would advise anyone NOT to place a bet on antepost markets.

    Sooooooo, I've obviously not taken my own advise because I'm impatient so, for small stakes, I've had a bit on Kaleshnikov each way at 8/1 in the opening race the Supreme Novice, currently best price 11/2 with anyone offering NRNB but, before anyone accuses me of boasting, most of the bets I place will go off at bigger prices on the day. They do every year.

    In the Arkle, I'm on Footpad which I backed at 15/8 and again at 4/5 (now evens). Unusually, I do actually have one fancy on day one and this is it (and has been for a while now). As I see it, it's a two-horse race between that and Petit Mouchoir but this is the festival.

    I haven't backed anything in race three the Ultima Handicap but I'm struggling to see how Singlefarmpayment can possibly be any shorter than 20/1. It's half that price. Brilliant run last year where it looked comfortable all the way round and finished 2nd in the same race. In the last 3 months it has fallen, finished 5th and pulled up. I wouldn't back it to finish, let alone win.

    So get on it:lol

    Champion Hurdle - I've laid Buveur D'air for no good reason than the price is ridiculous (or was, with weeks to go before the race)

    Mares Hurdle. Many of these will no doubt be entered into more than one race and, in any event, I can't see anything but an Apples Jade win.

    National Hunt Chase. If today was the day of the race I'd be backing Presenting Percy and looking for at least two others at big prices. No bets placed yet.

    Close Brothers Handicap. Gonna be at least three each way bets for me in this one and I haven't placed a bet yet but Movewiththetimes will probably be the first one at 10/1. I won't keep going on about how much JP McManus' horses have made me at the festivals over the years because I've done that every year.
    I think Barney Dwan will be favorite on the day.
    Punter and slick like this.
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Trends, comments and stuff
    Atheraces says

    Supreme Novices.
    Positives
    Four of the last 15 winners finished in the first five in the previous season’s Champion Bumper making it the best guide in recent seasons.

    Trained in Ireland (notably by Willie Mullins)

    Three runs or more over hurdles

    Front runners

    Contested last season's Champion Bumper


    Negatives
    Likely to start at under 3/1. Ten of the last 13 favourites to be sent off at 2/1 or shorter in the Supreme were beaten. Getabird 7/4 FAV

    Beaten last time out

    Ran on the flat

    Not run during the last 45 days


    Next Destination finished fourth in last year's bumper, won last time out. Has had 3 runs over hurdles. Not a front runner but has been handy in recent runs. Not trained my Mr Mullins but trained in Ireland by Mrs Mullins. Best price (with NRNB) 14/1
    Unfortunately also has entries for two other races.

    Western Ryder finished fifth in last year's bumper and has had more than three runs over hurdles but beaten last time out, not trained in Ireland. Again, not the front running type. Best price 33/1
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Arkle Positives
    Trained by Willie Mullins or Henderson
    Highest rated hurdler
    Won or placed at festival (notably a novice hurdle)
    Ran in the November Novices’ Chase, Henry VIII Novices’ Chase or Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase

    Negatives
    5 Year old
    Likely to start 12/1+
    Not officially rated 142+


    Favourite Footpad seems to tick most of the right boxes. Even money
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Ultima Handicap. Last year's winner made something of a mockery of previous trends, being the first winner rated over 150 in 35 years but, for what it's worth

    Likely to start in first four in betting (although, as Seen has pointed out, favorites don't do well so make of that what you will).
    Won last time out
    Won or placed at a previous festival
    Prepped over hurdles (notably the cleeve hurdle)
    Owned by JP McManus
    Trained by Jonjo O'Neill, David Pipe, Alan King or Neil Mulholland

    Negatives, Aged 11+ and trained by Paul Nicholls


    The only last time out winners I can see with a previous festival place are Coo Star Sivola 10/1 (been money for it recently) and Gold Present 8/1
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Champion hurdle positives
    Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
    Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
    Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (for each-way purposes)

    Negatives
    Five-year-olds (for win-only purposes)
    Aged 10+
    Not run during the same calendar year
    Unplaced in last year’s race


    Odds on fav Buveur D'air?
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    OLBG Mares Hurdle
    Positives
    Irish-trained
    Ran well in last year's race
    Novices

    Negatives - none

    Again, Odds on fav Apple's Jade
    Graceful Legend
    66/1
    Indian Stream 66/1
    Vroom Vroom Mag 6/1

  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    National Hunt Challenge Cup

    upload_2018-3-1_18-56-32.png
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Close Bro's Nov Hcap Chase

    upload_2018-3-1_18-58-3.png
  11. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,296
    Good stuff lads, Excellent thread:thumb
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    Sceau Royal is out of the Arkle

    [​IMG]
    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 9, 2018
  13. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,771
    As mentioned in the early thoughts thread i fancy SIZING TENNESSE. Runs in the National Hunt Challenge Cup for Amateur riders. Got the going he'll appreciate, knows the course well. My only concern is a different joc in saddle. I'm on E.W @ 10/1
  14. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,197
    A few i got on ante post are now favs so I've scored a few points so just need them to win now.

    1.30 Getabird (ante) / Western Ryder (ew)
    2.10 Footpad (ante) but think Saint Calvados will give it a good race
    2.50 Singlefarmpayment
    3.30 Faugheen (ante) / My Tent Or Yours (ew)
    4.10 Apples Jade
    4.50 Jury Duty
    5.30 Any Second Now / Mister Whitaker

    I haven't backed all the short prices favs tomorrow but I have done a short priced treble for the week and first one goes tomorrow.

    Apples Jade
    Un De Sceaux (Thursday)
    Laurina (Thursday)

    Good luck everybody and let's hope all the horses come home safely and that the bookies take a pumping.

    :beer
    Punter likes this.
  15. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,259
    Good to see The Racing Post Spotlight writers sticking their necks out for tomorrow...

    FAV
    FAV
    FAV
    FAV
    FAV
    3rd FAV
    FAV

    :ohwell
  16. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778

    No wonder they're putting the price of the paper up with top tipping like that:thumb
  17. SAMOAN

    SAMOAN Moderator

    Messages:
    3,505
    1.30 - DAME ROSE - Grade 2 Bumper / listed hurdle winner and fair fourth last time out at Donnie. Suspicion she might just prefer better ground, but does have enough form on the going to merit consideration and definite place prospects on her best form. Tongue tie added and for me, looks a little big at 66's.

    2.50 - COGRY - Goes on the ground, is a capable stayer and has won last 2 course starts. Not in the best of form lately, but a revival here would not be a huge shock at 16's.

    5.30 - KAYF ADVENTURE - May not be up to this level, but arrives here in decent form and does have plenty of form on the ground. Fair upset potential at 33's.
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,778
    The light type is my orginal post and the bold is my update

  19. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,771
    Good luck fellas. As already mentioned i'm on SIZING TENNESSE as my main hope today but i have other E.W bets on..

    US AND THEM
    PETIT MOUCHOIR
    GOLD PRESENT
    FAUGHEEN
    BENIE DES DIEUX
  20. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,656
    missed the first race , thankfully I wouldn't have choosen the winner.

    I've only picked three each way today

    Cogry
    Wicklow Brave
    Jer's girl

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