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Eurovision Song Contest Betting 18th - 22nd May 2021

Discussion in 'Special & Novelty Betting' started by Beanie, Apr 16, 2021.

  1. Beanie

    Beanie Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    Music lovers everywhere breathe a sigh of relief! Eurovision is back! It’s just a shame that with lockdown restrictions easing significantly on the 17th May, no-one will watch it as they’ll all be having a lock in down the pub.


    A month to go, and plenty of time for things to change in terms of staging and live performances, but here’s a quick rundown. No entry from Will Ferrel this year - more’s the pity.


    We should get more rehearsal, vocal and staging snippets over the next couple of weeks. Staging feels more important than ever this year given the limited audience. Potentially an advantage to the more intimate songs. Additionally, recorded backing vocals are allowed for the first time, which will help lift those songs that rely heavily on the backing track.


    Semi Final 1: 18th May 2021


    My 10 qualifiers at the moment:


    Malta - Worthy favourite in this weakish semi final. Polished pop song that should win the semi from the last slot provided there’s no own goals in the staging.

    Cyprus - Very Gaga-esque. Should attract solid televote and jury support, but the song stalls at times and there’s no ‘moment’ to lift it into the top 5 on finals night.

    Sweden - As per usual staging unlikely to change from the Melfest final so is what it is - solid standard pop not out of place 10 years ago, but difficult to see it contending on finals night.

    Romania - Not much for televoters to cling to in a mid tempo song, but great draw positioned between 2 uptempo numbers. Fairly easy Q - staging key in terms of where it goes from there.

    Lithuania - Enjoyable but doesnt capture the same quirkyness that their 2020 entry did. Qualifying but a little overrated imo.

    Russia - Likely a 10/10 from the Russian diaspora and a 1/10 from Western televoters and juries. Lost friendly votes with the withdrawal of Belarus but Russia doing Russia things and coasting through.

    Croatia - expecting this to translate well to the big stage on the night. In a semi final crowded with upbeat female vocals i think this stands out sufficiently.

    Azerbaijan - Slightly underrated by the markets imo. Lyrics are repetitive but instrumentals are classic Eastern Eurovision and expecting a strong staging.

    Norway - Villain of the early selection season after beating fan favourites KEIINO. His victory in the Norwegian selection relied on a narrative that wont translate to wider Eurovision audiences, and if unchanged the staging is likely to alienate juries. Still, simple melodic song gets enough of a televote to Q for me.

    Ukraine - Stands out well, particularly in between two pop numbers. Memorable enough to Q in spite of the niche genre.


    And the others:


    Belgium - stands out in this semi of upbeat pop. All rests on the staging to capture the mood of the song - without that there’s zero televote support to lift this through.

    Israel - Engaging performer but little in the song to take votes from the other female led pop songs in the semi. Uphill battle.

    Australia - Tricky song to stage, tricky song to sing. Risks turning into a mess and probably gives Aus their first NQ.

    Ireland - inoffensive but no clear USP for televoters or juries.

    North Macedonia - For such an unremarkable ballad its peculiarly structured. Difficult to identify where jury or televote support comes from but might just escape last.

    Slovenia - In the coffin slot and heading home on Tuesday night.


    Semi Final 2: 20th May 2021


    My 10 qualifiers at the moment:


    Switzerland - I dont find this quite as captivating as his 2020 entry - may lose voters in the first minute unless staging keeps them involved, but an easy q nonetheless

    Bulgaria - Another one that could easily be lifted by the staging. Song is delicate, but im concerned it doesnt grab the viewers on first listen.

    Iceland - Another regression from their 2020 entry, but the nerdy disco vibes should still strike a chord and song is catchy enough.

    Finland - stands out sufficiently in the shorter semi final, particularly following Bulgaria in the running order.

    Greece - I think there’s enough here for the diaspora to propel a solid televote and sporadic jury support for a safe qualification.

    San Marino - Provided this doenst turn into a mess on stage it’s catchy and current enough to gather support across the continent, and a rare qualification.

    Moldova - If the music video is anything to go by we can expect a big effort put into the staging. Enough of a hook to lift it through the semi final, and not much more.

    Serbia - Perfect draw in between Georgia and Iceland, but another that could be messy on stage. Friendly votes probably get it there.

    Estonia - I think this is slightly underrated in terms of qualification chances. It’s fairly ploddy and drab, and in the coffin slot, but I think there’s a eurovision market for this type of male fronted pop.

    Denmark - Likely very poor jury support but I’m not counting this one out - Eurovision nostalgia on steroids and a great show closer.


    And the others:


    Austria - Pleasant enough song, well produced, and likely solid jury support. Question marks for me over its televote score so not convinced yet that its qualifying.

    Albania - revamp to the song has improved it but feels like the Balkan ballad we get every year at Eurovision. Unlike Serbia, im not sure that the regional votes will be enough.

    Poland - Generic synthwave that never builds or goes anywhere. Would need excellent staging to motivate viewers enough to pick up the phone.

    Czech Republic - Interested to see where the staging goes with this one - song is catchy but it doesnt lend itself to a clear staging concept. A non-q for me just now but has some potential.

    Latvia - Bold but a bit too jarring for a light entertainment show. Despite eurovision fan support can’t see this progressing.

    Portugal - Dead as a dodo.

    Georgia - Deader than the Portuguese dodo.


    Big 5 + Host:


    France - Masterpiece. Timeless. Captivating. Im usually disappointed by French entries but this is spectacular. Is it too French? I think juries will fall for this in a big way - televoters is the open question.

    Germany - resoundingly negative fan reactions so far, little jury support, and headed for a bottom 5 finish.

    Italy - Really well constructed, credible entry that I think corners the rock vote (killing off Finland in the process.) It’s not a genre that enjoys particularly wide Eurovision appeal, but mid top 10 wont be a surprise, top 5 if staged well.

    Spain - disappointingly dull ballad. Vocal gymnastics will be tricky pull off on the night. Chumming Germany down to the bottom 5.

    UK - not a fan. Uptempo is a nice change but I don’t see much here to motivate televotes/jury support in what will be a a fairly uptempo final, and theres solid dad dancing vibes from the music video. Right hand side of the scoreboard, again.

    Netherlands - clearly not keen on the idea of hosting twice in a row - mission accomplished.




    More thoughts on the outright and adjustments to the qualifiers to follow in the coming weeks. Agree? Disagree? Hit me with your thoughts.
    slick, rcgills and Punter like this.
  2. Beanie

    Beanie Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    Current Top 5 in the Outright Market

    Malta @ 4/1



    France @ 5/1



    Switzerland @ 6/1



    Italy @ 12/1



    Bulgaria @ 13/1

    slick likes this.
  3. Radoslav

    Radoslav Active Member

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    193
    Hey Beanie , I havent seen you for ages.... Welcome back BRO ! How are you ? Best of lkuck with all the bets !
  4. Beanie

    Beanie Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    I'm good thanks Rado - dont do too much gambling these days outside of Eurovision and a bit of poker. Life got in the way of it all! How are you doing?
  5. Radoslav

    Radoslav Active Member

    Messages:
    193
    The same for me - almost no gambling, no poker at all.... Just invested some more money in crypto and now consider when to go out completely , a lot on the green ! As for life my dad passed away from Covid 19 on 30-th of December 2020, but time doesnt stop and lifi is going on and try to get on with everything business and so on ...
    Punter and winrew like this.
  6. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

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    4,782
    Sorry to hear about your dad, Radoslav :frown
    Radoslav likes this.
  7. Beanie

    Beanie Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    Really sorry to hear that Radoslav - hope you are doing ok mate.

    GL with the crypto trading - its a wild ride! I work in financial services and we are barred from investing :talkhand
    Radoslav likes this.
  8. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,328
    Sorry to hear about your Dad too Rad.

    Pretty much my view on life, life's too short to dwell on things you have no control over.
    Radoslav likes this.
  9. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,328
    Thanks for the Euro updates Beanie, I'll have a listen and cast some views over the weekend:thumb
  10. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,328
    I'll go through the first Semi final tonight.

    Malta- Destiny - Je Me Casse
    My first listen tonight and I can already hear why this is favourite, It's modern and ticks all the Eurovision boxes.
    Should tick all the diversity boxes too because it looks like a big fat black lesbian singing it.
    Last time I saw something like that was in Russ Meyers movie, Beneath the valley of the ultra Vixens circa late 70's when we used to sneak in the pictures as a kid to watch some Frankie Vaughn. (I'm talking about the big black bird that worked in the scrap yard).

    Cyprus- Elena Tsagrinou - El Diablo
    Don't mind this one either although I don't know why she's singing about a bottle of red wine.
    Reminds me of when I used to go on Holiday to Turkey in the noughties.
    Sounds like a mixture of Shakira and Lady Gaga.
    It's one that grows on you the more you listen, saying that there's not many lyrics in the song and it's a bit repetitive, ohhh! it's just ended in the same whipsering vane as Henrique Inglesias's 'Hero' , not a bad touch I suppose.

    Sweden- Tusse - Voices - Sweden
    Hey up, Swedish bagpipes start the intro, that's a novelty.
    Can't work out if this is Fella or a woman, Could be another black lezzer but this time in a suit.
    I'll post the video to this one in case you think I'm taking the piss:unsure


    Either way it's shite, it's just singing the same chorus over and over again in different tones.

    Romania- ROXEN - Amnesia
    I like this one, even though the songs are started to sound the samish after only 4 songs in.
    Gone are the traditional folky songs these eastern European countries used to sing by the sound of it, I was expecting to see some old haggard bastard singing about baking bread, burning it and getting a good leathering off her husband but this is very good.
    I'm having that one, I'll put in on my shortlist with Malta.

    Break time while I get a top up.:beer
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2021
  11. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    Lithuania- The Roop - Discoteque
    I don't know what to make of this one, without trying to sound politically incorrect, this used to be known as a gaggle of gays.
    I won't beat about the bush here, this has no chance and the worst so far.

    Russia- Manizha - Russian Woman
    This is a lot more of what I was expecting from the Eastern Europeans, very traditional and no fcuking chance.
    Manizha has nailed the Hilda Ogden in a boiler suit look which is a classical minds eye view of a Russian Woman, just a pity she can't sing as well as Hilda.

    Croatia- Albina - Tick-Tock
    Wasn't too bad until she tried to hit that first high note and then it all went to shit.
    I'm no fashion guru but my eye's are more drawn to the clobber and make up more than the song for some reason. It's like Messi going onto a football pitch with a pair of beige and brown boots on, it just doesn't work.
    Anyhow back to the song and I'll try and concentrate on that.
    As I expected it went to VAR and for once everybody was in agreement that it was shite.

    Azerbaijan- Efendi - Mata Hari
    This is quite similar to the Cyprus entry IMO but the difference being it tries to combine some traditional music into the mix.
    Does it work? I'd say it does.
    I'd go as far as to say it's my favourite so far, sort of East meets West Combo and that sultry look at the end of the song from Efendi could be a game changer lol.
    Don't know what odds this will be to reach the final but my money will be on it.

    Another top up:beer
  12. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    Norway- TIX - Fallen Angel
    First Impression's are Bon jovi with wings, I don't get this, he's going for visuals rather than the song.
    The songs based around him rather than the other way round.
    We've even got a bit of bondage going on now.
    Sounds very Western American from the early 80's, (remember 'you can thank your luck stars' ) .
    The Songs growing on me now and the Choreography from above looks very effective.
    This should make the final then I'll have to reassess it because it's one of those that could be a winner.

    Ukraine- Go_A - SHUM
    First impressions are...... worst of the lot so far, she sounds like a constipated Chinese man , what's the point.
    They'd be as well entering the flute player who's very good.
    Speeds up towards the end and you could imagine some Cossack knee dancers joining in but they don't so once again, what's the point?
    It's just a mishmash of Russian/Ukrainian music trying to sound western that get's lost from the first chord.

    Belgium- Hooverphonic - The Wrong Place
    I take back from what i said about the Ukraine entry now, how bad is this:puke

    Israel- Eden Alene - Set Me Free
    Not bad but very middle of the road.
    Another one of those repetitive chorus songs but it's been done a million times before.

    Australia- Montaigne - Technicolour
    looks like a white lezza this time, and worst singer of the lot so far.
    This is bad, like a British Legion version of Sinead O'connor .
    She's even struggling to hit the Tesco 'I'll pay by card' notes.
    Last edited: Apr 24, 2021
  13. Beanie

    Beanie Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    :lol nice one slick - if you thought those were bad then I hate to tell you it's probably the stronger of the 2 semis...

    Spain hosted an online party tonight where a number of participants performed live (usually Eurovision season has a few live concerts in the build up that shape the betting markets a little). It's still going on just now - link below:



    Will run through that soon. Unfortunately with it being virtual and the participants being able to 'produce' their own performances there will be fewer clues about who can and cant sing live.

    Also a couple of key dates - on Monday the technical rehearsals start, followed by the proper rehearsals on the 8th May. A few countries are throwing a few bob at their staging this year with some big name choreographers involved, so those rehearsals will give some major clues about who is in contention.

    Finally, a useful site to keep an eye on:

    https://esctracker.com/

    Tracks the performance of each entry on the iTunes, Spotify, Apple Music charts across Europe which has been an excellent indicator of Eurovision success in recent years. Look our for songs charting in other countries charts.
    slick likes this.
  14. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    I'll try and do the other Semi later if I can fit my ear buds in.

    My ears felt a bit hard waxy in the week so I bought some drops to try and clean them out, they didn't work so I bough some more drops of a different chemical, fcuk me, I'm now nearly deaf and my ear canals have shrunk to the size of a nuns fanny.
    Very painful to touch too or lie on a pillow, been waking up nearly every hr for the last couple of days.

    I'm hoping after having a skinfull tonight I might be brave and try and shove an earbud in:lol
  15. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    Well I'll give it a go, soldier that I am lol.,, 2nd Semi Final...
    Last edited: May 1, 2021
  16. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,328
    Switzerland- Gjon's Tears - Tout l’Univers

    Sounds like an intro to one of those Nordic police detective TV series' that are popular at the moment.
    It's not Nordic I know but sounds like it.
    Nah no chance, way too slow and melancholic.

    Bulgaria- VICTORIA - Growing Up Is Getting Old
    It's different, I'll give it that, started off like something from Orwells 1984.
    I like this, very sweet, and sweet again.
    Probably ,my favorite song so far including the first Semi.

    I'll post the song up because it's on my shortlist....
  17. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    Iceland- Daði og Gagnamagnið - 10 Years
    Wrote a review but lost it when I refreshed.
    To cut it short......boring and no chance.
  18. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    Finland- Blind Channel - Dark Side
    Sounds like rock but not quite rock as it's being tamed down.
    Initially I thought it sounded ok but it soon got repetitive, Make make the final but that's about it.

    Greece- Stefania - Last Dance
    Middle of the road, Bag of shite imo.

    San Marino- Senhit - Adrenalina
    Ehhm, reminds me of holidays in Turkey.
    Catchy, bit of a miss mash of middle/eastern European and a bit of rap thrown in for good measure.
    I'd say this is a qualifier.
    Jezza likes this.
  19. slick

    slick Administrator

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    14,328
    Moldova- Natalia Gordienko - SUGAR
    Not a bad song until she started singing about sugar.
    In this day and age of all things being Natural and healthy, how the fcuk did she not swap Sugar for Stevia.
    A big no and tut...tut from me.

    Still good enough mind to get out of this Semi.

    Serbia- Hurricane - English Version of Loco Loco...
    No Intro needed, straight into the final....




    Estonia- Uku Suviste - The Lucky One
    Bag of shite, full stop.
    Could be Freddie or Pavarotti singing this and they still wouldn't be able to rescue it.

    Denmark- Fyr & Flamme - Øve Os På Hinanden
    Ehhm...No... , so outdated I now feel like a 10 yr old.
    Last edited: May 1, 2021
  20. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    14,328
    Austria- Vincent Bueno - Amen
    Not my type of song but I've heard a lot worse tonight.
    If this is over 5's to reach the final Id have a dabble.

    Albania- Anxhela Peristeri - Karma
    Traditional song which is what I like to see, I don't mind it but it doesn't rock my boat.