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Its the final system da na na na

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by LHR Racing, Apr 19, 2013.

  1. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    Final system (honest) (sung to the Europe tune)

    There haven’t been enough 2 year old runners to start selections eyt based on my ratings as the level of collateral form simply isn’t there just yet. I’ve been working on expanding the methodology to all flat (and All Weather) races. I’ve finished running 2011/12 runners through the ratings and the results weren’t great. I did some filtering based on age and that improved the numbers significantly. Basically everything over 5 returned a hefty loss while ages 3,4 and 5 had some decent looking numbers.

    There were surprisingly few selections. The two year old system tested live last year over the same period had 620 odd while this had only 640. The results were pretty good to say the least .

    Bets 644
    Wins 180
    Strike 28%
    Profit 411 Units
    ROI 64%

    The ROI is swollen by 4 winners over 45/1 BFSP. Without those it would be around 200 units which is still fairly decent.

    That’s the propaganda. This is strictly for testing until 250 bets have gone. I am not following myself.
    Bank 100. Usual rules re bookmakers. No odds restrictions.3, 4 and 5 years only that finished in top 3 LTO are sole ones for review.
  2. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    There are actually two today - same race

    18.30 Bath jwala 9/2 Gen
    18.30 Bath My Propellor 11/2 Gen
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,988
    My Propellor 2nd at 6/1. No profit but a promising start,
  4. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    4 today including one for Spring Cup. Most fairly marginal. Lightning Cloud takes a drop in class but is 6 months off the track and the stable’s form is patchy to be kind. I like Blue Shoes quite a bit in the 17.45 and will probably back each way.It is also dropping in class with an LTO rating (of mine) that would be more than enough to win this even allowing for a decline of a few pounds. First run of the year again and not a horse that wins much but a place claim looks solid. Everything else watching brief only.

    13.50 Newb Model Pupil 4/1 Gen
    14.20 Newb Educate 11/2 Gen
    15.25 Thirs Lightning Cloud 4/1 Gen
    17.45 Thir Blue Shoes 12/1 Gen
  5. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    4 brutal runs. Blue Shoes especially bad. All selections drifted badly.

    13.50 Newb Model Pupil 4/1 Gen Unp -1 Unit
    14.20 Newb Educate 11/2 Gen Unp -1 Unit
    15.25 Thirs Lightning Cloud 4/1 Gen 3rd -1 Unit
    17.45 Thir Blue Shoes 12/1 Gen UNp -1 Unit

    Loss on Day -4 Units
  6. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    No qualifiers tomorrow.
  7. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    5 selections thrown up tomorrow - unfortunately 4 in the one race (the 2.20 handicap at Epsom). Sacrosanctus looks the nap for me in that race but hes off the track for over 8 months. Will have a ponder.
  8. LHR Racing

    LHR Racing Member

    Messages:
    73
    A client meeting ran way over today and didn't get to post these. Probably just as well as in the interest of full disclosure none even placed. I have gone over 2011 and found the results almost the mirror image of 2012 in being absolutely crap. I need to do a bit more work on this as the 2011 2 year old testing was good as well.

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