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Pete's Poisson Picks

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by Pete89, Jan 30, 2013.

  1. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Been paper trading CS using Possion to calculate goal expectancy since the start of the month and its been working out not too bad, going to start with real money at the weekend, but in the meantime heres my last set of picks for paper trading. All bets are to win £100 so profit will be £100-stake.

    Arsenal V Liverpool £28.04 staked on:
    2-0, 3-0, 3-2, 3-3, AU

    Everton V WBA £27.37 staked on:
    0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3

    Norwich V Tottenham £26.99 staked on:
    1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2

    Fulham V West Ham £41.51 staked on:
    1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, AU

    Man Utd V Southampton £31.26 staked on:
    2-1, 3-2, All quouted Southamption Win Scores, All quoted Draw scored exc 0-0

    Reading V Chelsea £31.32 staked on:
    All quoted Reading Win Scores, All quoted Draw Scores exc. 0-0
  2. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349

    £300 in (Sadly Paper) returns tonight from £187.49 staked for a profit of £112.51

    The system proper starts on Saturday, when I will start betting for real.

    I'll probably try and post before then with abit more info on what I'm doing..
  3. traeth

    traeth Moderator

    Messages:
    1,579
    well done pete
  4. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    So this came out of my attempt to make my spreadsheets for American Football, the most successful of my excel based betting, work for real football, My problem was that while ELO based ratings work quite well for international matches, I've not had much success with them in domestic leagues.

    Obviously because of the differences between the sports, namely the relative scarcity of goals in football compared to am. football and the differences in betting approach (My NFL betting consists mostly of beating the spread) I had to adjust the approach slightly and decided to focus on Correct Scores.

    The main input to calculating this is the Average Goals For/Against numbers, adjusted for home advantage and away disadvantage. I then use the Goal expectancy numbers for each team against there opposition punch into the possion function in excel to give the probabilities of scoring 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4+ goals from which I can get the probabilities of each score or any unquoted. (I could also devise O/U 2.5 ect, WLD or AH markets but I figured it was better to test with the core data as it were)

    from there its a simple conversion from % probability to decimal odds and a case of back if its value. I'll post up what I'm betting later on, but if anyone wants a copy of prices generated I'm happy to send you the pdf
  5. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    I've decided to start out betting to win £20 per game, however I will for my record keeping continue to record to £100 and so will post to that effect. Here's Tomorrows, I'll post Sundays up tomorrow night

    QPR v Norwich £28.35 staked:
    0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, AU

    Arsenal v Stoke £11.42 staked:
    0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3

    Everton v Aston Villa £21.35 staked:
    0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-3

    Newcastle v Chelsea £33.65 staked:
    0-1, 0-3, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-2

    Reading v Sunderland £29.30 staked:
    0-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-2, 3-3, AU

    West Ham v Swansea £39.90 staked:
    0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0

    Wigan v Southamption £30.10 staked:
    0-2, 0-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-3, AU

    Fulham v Man Utd £27.20 staked:
    1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3

    Total Stakes £221.27
  6. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    So saturday's games are over and I'm Quite pleased with the results:

    0-0 :cry

    1-0 :cry

    3-3 :thumb

    3-2 :thumb

    2-1 :cry

    1-0 :thumb

    2-2 :thumb

    0-1 :cry

    Total Stakes £221.27. Total Returned £400, profit of £178.73
  7. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Sundays Picks are:

    WBA v Tottenham £34.50 staked:
    1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, AU

    Man City v Liverpool £27.50 staked:
    0-3, 1-3, 3-0, 3-2, AU
  8. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    6,447
    0-3 and 1-3 Liverpool? Are you mad? :)

    Interesting stuff and nice going Pete :thumb
  9. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    No emotion or thought what so ever punt, if the spreadsheet says its 20.0 and the odds are 23 you back it. (Not sure what the odds were on that one but just my example)

    Two losses today sadly +116.73 for the weekend
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,313
    Still some good going there Pete
  11. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Yeah not too bad, Hopefully I can build on it
  12. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Saturday's picks:

    Tottenham V Newcastle £36.75:
    0 - 1, 0 - 2, 0 - 3, 1 - 2, 1 - 3, 2 - 2, 2 - 3, AU

    Stoke V Reading £32.35:
    0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 3-3, AU

    Sunderland V Arsenal £51.35
    0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1

    Norwich V Fulham £24.25
    1-3, 2-0, 3-0, 3-2, AU

    Chelsea V Wigan £30.35
    0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3

    Swansea V QPR £40.15
    0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, AU

    Sunderland V Man City £36.30
    0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1

    Total Stakes £251.50
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,313
    Good luck Pete
  14. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Need Southamption to hold on with no more goals for a profit today (Obviously the last game should be Southampton v man city as opposed to sunderland)
  15. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    +48.50 today then, +227.33 overall
    Punter likes this.
  16. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    For Tomorrow:

    Aston VIlla V West Ham £46.85:
    0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1

    Man Utd V Everton £39.40:
    0-2, 0-3, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, 3-3, AU
  17. Wayne

    Wayne Active Member

    Messages:
    576
    Loving your work Pete :thumb
  18. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    £13.75 up for Sunday. Total profit £241.08

    liverpool bets to follow...
  19. Pete89

    Pete89 Member

    Messages:
    349
    Liverpool v WBA £26
    0-1, 0-2, 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-2, 2-3, 3-2, 3-3
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,313
    You're a genius Pete

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