System 52

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by jtw1, Oct 5, 2013.

  1. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    This is from another forum whose regular tipster attempts to proof systems using some simple criteria.
    System 52 was one of those which showed some decent profit , here's the final totals together with the criteria involved -

    System 52: Unbeaten Horses

    Rules:
    1. Bet to win on any horse that has never been beaten in any race listed in its Racing Post horse history (including non-UK races and PTP).
    2. If there are two or more qualifiers in a race there is no bet for that race.
    3. Unraced horses are ignored.

    System applies to all UK races (Flat and NH).

    Staking:
    5 pts to win on each qualifier.

    Logic:
    It is never easy to assess the full potential of a horse that is yet to be beaten. The aim of this trial is to discover whether punters tend to underestimate these horses.

    Results based on 5pt wins (200 bets)
    Total stakes: 1000 pts
    Total returns: 1265.02 pts
    Profit +265.02 pts

    Comment: Undoubtedly one of the most exciting trials so far. The 200 bets produced 62 winners (31%) and a further 52 placings meaning that 57% of the bets won or placed. The profit of 265 points from a total stake of 1000 points represented a 26.5% return.
    It is clear that punters consistently underestimate the potential of these lightly-raced horses, particularly those from lower profile yards. The trial was based on SP returns so a significantly higher profit could be expected from early prices.

    I think it could be worth trialling it for a few weeks
  2. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Here's today's qualifiers with best odds according to BetRescue

    2.20 Newm - ENSURING 15.00

    5.15 Newm - AJMAN BRIDGE 2.62

    3.30 Red - COMINO 17.00

    5.20 Font - DOING FINE 2.37

    5.50 Font - BADGER WOOD 41.00

    2.05 Asc - OUTER SPACE 6.50

    Sunday
    ---------

    2.35 Kel - ESTINAAD

    3.25 Hunt - REFER
  3. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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  4. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Sunday
    ---------

    2.35 Kel - ESTINAAD 13/8 2nd @ 7/4

    3.25 Hunt - REFER 5/6 2nd @ 8/11


    Nothing on Monday

    Tuesday - 3.30 Catt - KING OF MACEDON

    5.40 Wolv - IMPROVISED
  5. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Weds
    -------

    3.50 Towc - GARNOCK
  6. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Nothing on Thursday
  7. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Friday
    -------

    2.00 York - ROZENE

    5.00 Carl - FRANCISCAN

    2.20 NewAb - BEAU DE TABEL
  8. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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  9. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    2.35 Newm - GREAT WHITE EAGLE

    4.25 Newm - ALTHAKIRA

    4.55 Newm - KINGSTON HILL

    2.55 York - MUSHIR

    3.25 Chep - SPOOKYDOOKY

    6.10 Chep - COMTE D'ANJOU , JOE BUGG , MINELLA SCAMP , THOMAS BROWN.
  10. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    WOW ! Just as i was starting to wonder about this one it finds 3 decent priced winners :naughty

    If we take the original aim of the system , to find runner's under-estimated in the market because of just 1or 2 wins , and apply a set of rules eg, ignore those Favourite or under , say , 4/1 in the betting then it may well turn out to be a worthwhile test .
    Let's see how the last race pans out....
  11. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    6.10 Chep - COMTE D'ANJOU unp @ 14/1 , JOE BUGG unp @33/1 , MINELLA SCAMP unp @ 9/2 , THOMAS BROWN 4th @ 4/1

    Sunday
    ---------

    2.15 FFOS - TARA MUCK
  12. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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  13. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Monday
    ----------

    5.20 Muss - SILENT MOVIE

    5.10 Wind - MUHTARIS
  14. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    That's the first week over and if i had placed 10pts on every selection , with a split stake if more than 1 selection in a race , we would be on what we started with

    If i ignore those returned Fav and those over 20/1 then we have a profit of 80pts after 10 bets which produced 3 winners.
  15. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Nil for Tuesday
  16. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Thursday
    ------------

    3.50 Winc - FLEMENSON and MAN IN BLACK

    5.50 Kemp - HIKING
  17. jtw1

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    Friday
    --------

    2.10 Chel - CLOUD BROOK

    4.25 Chel - ANTEROS

    3.30 Hay - RED STARGAZER
  18. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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  19. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    5.30 Chel - CARNINGLI , MIDNIGHT THUNDER , THE GOVANESS , VAZANO DELAFAYETTE.
  20. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

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    Sunday
    ----------

    2.15 Kemp - ALDOPICGROS

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