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The $64,000 VALUE Question!!!

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by hotspur, Jun 6, 2015.

  1. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    NB I was very much in two minds whether to start this thread and in fact there's a 50% chance I won't finish it.

    The reason I'm in two minds is because my main motivation in starting it is annoyance* and I really don't know how long that will last.

    In the end the thing that swayed it was waking up hours earlier than planned on Champions League day.(The Champions League final is very important to me as I need to know who is going to be top scorer overall.)


    Another reason for not doing this thread is that there's a reasonable chance it will fail even if I finish it and it seems that there are many people on forums who think that threads actually PROVE things.

    They can't.

    So why do this thread at all if it can't prove anything?

    Because as things stand at the moment pretty much every single gambler on the internet believes 100 %in the following statement,

    "The only way you can make (long-term) profits from betting is to find and bet on VALUE selections"


    And the purpose of this thread is merely to implant the POSSIBILITY in the minds of some gamblers that actually the above statement may be false.

    As for why I would wish to do that I may explain at a later date.


    I havnt finished this initial post and would appreciate it if people refrained from commenting until I have later on today.Cheers.




    * at comments made on another forum in my absence
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,988
    Righto
  3. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    There's a game kicking off at 2-30 so I need to quickly finish explaining what this thread will entail.


    I intend to place a series of bets on the Scandinavian soccer season and summer sports and I aim to make a small profit.

    So far so boring.

    The twist is that I intend to only pick selections that can be reasonably deduced or agreed are NOT VALUE!!

    Thus if anyone at any point sincerely believes any of my selections is or was value I will ( within reason ) reduce the price of my selection until you are satisfied it isn't value!


    Furthermore,in order to make it even less likely that my selections are value I will only be betting on antepost markets - which are notorious for having big overrounds,20% plus is the norm-and I will bet in multiples except at the end of the season.


    So just to be clear,

    I will be deliberately seeking to place 'BAD BETS' yet still come out ahead while endeavouring to not require luck to play any part.

    (Then I may ask the incredibly intelligent people on this forum ( no irony intended) how I did it.)



    Okie dokie let's get the first bet on.




    Bet 365 (All selections are to win the league unless stated). CC = county championship cricket

    Rosenborgs 2/5*, Messi top Champs lge scorer 2/5** ,Yorks CC1 12-5 ,Jonkopings Sodra 6-5,Gothenburg*** evens,Dundalk 2/7



    Stake £24 from a £1000 bank


    Bet 2 as above but Middlesex 5-1 CC1 instead of Yorks. Stake £8


    Bets 3and 4 as 1 and 2 except Neymar 9-2**** instead of Messi Stakes £12 and £4


    * actual odds 1-2 but I've reduced them as I think 1-2 may be a bit of value

    ** a lot of people might think Messi is value at bet 365s 4/9 hence 2/5

    *** actual odds 6-5 which may be a touch of value

    **** 5-1 actual odds



    Right,I've had to rush this but hopefully you get the idea?

    If anyone on here AT ANY POINT has reason to believe that any bet or any selection is or was value please give your reasoning ( not to mention whether you've bet on it!) and I will endeavour to cut the price as long as people don't deliberately start taking the piss,ha.
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2015
  4. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    As far as the county championship prices are concerned I really really don't think thst any price is value.
    The overrounds are pretty big considering the small number of teams but if you disagree let me know.
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,988
    I really don't want to put a dampener on this thread after such a big build up but I'm compelled to say that I disagree. Not on your main point but on the statement above.

    I've been on internet gambling forums for a long time and I've been a gambler much longer than that and I've heard the "serious punters" going on ad nauseam about value value value. I understand the concept of value but the problem with value is that in most cases it is going to be subjective and impossible to quantify . One man's idea of whether Barcalona are value tonight at 8/13 will vary to that of another man.

    As an example (and without going into too much detail) I know (by which I mean that I have proven year after year after year) that I can consistently hit a strike rate of 40%+ on horses averaging a price of over 7/4. Nothing earth shattering there I know but the relevance to this thread is that I don't give a second's consideration as to whether any individual horse is value at 7/4. It is of no interest to me whatsoever.

    Likewise a "serious" gambler will tell you that you should only lay or hedge an existing bet if the price on offer represents value. Again, you can shove that rule up your arse in my opinion. If I'm watching any bet of mine and I consider that there's a chance that something might happen "whether that be a team one goal up with 90 seconds to go, or a horse leading with one fence to jump" I won't make a calculation of the probability of my bet losing versus the price on offer for that to happen (i.e. assess the value) instead, I may make a calculation on the impact on my pocket if the worst should happen to happen and I may decide to lay (or I may not).

    I'm not saying that mine is the right way to do things. What I'm saying is that I know that a profit can be made without any regard to finding value which, as far as I can see, is what you're setting out to prove. I hope you do get some doubters to convert but you're preaching to the choir with me mate and if I think like that, there must be thousands more who think in the same way.
  6. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215

    There's quite a bit there to ( possibly) comment on but my main point is that on PL I am rediculed for claiming that,

    " in long-term markets you need not bet value in order to make a profit ( luck being discounted)"

    To be perfectly honest Onedunme I'm not really aiming this thread at anyone on here as I have already well and truly noticed that this is the ONLY forum/ gambling advice website on which it is NOT overtly stated that you need to bet value.

    That's mainly why I chose this forum.
    All I require from you guys is for you to point out any selection that you think may be value.

    I will respond to the rest of your post if there's anything go respond to later.

    Edit.Before anyone asks what the point is of posting this on a forum where people already apparently accept the premise, the thing is I don't actually want to show evidence on most other forums anyway.

    You guys have already made it pretty clear I think that come what may you're only ever going to be betting on 90 minute markets.
    At the very least it may be 3 years before I come on here and see 4 or 5 antepost accumulator threads.

    It's enough for me to be able to show people(outside this forum) this thread if they fucking well insist on arguing the toss with me.

    The only other alternative is to show them my winnings......
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2015
  7. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    A general point further to the above.

    Over the next few years it's my intention to inform anyone who will listen ( so not posters on gambling forums then,ha) that pretty much everything you read on most* gambling forums is at best next to useless as far as actually winning money is concerned.

    Let's take one of the most common things you read on forums.(Just as an example of how misleading forums are.)

    In fact I read it in the last 2 months and have read it well over a dozen times on different forums and websites.

    " Making money from betting on football is very difficult"


    NOW ,it seems to me that if this thread should make a profit despite the fact that I will have asked the members of this site to point out any selection they think may be value and cut the price accordingly,then it would serve to demonstrate what utter bollocks it is to say that making money from soccer betting is very hard.


    The only other alternative ( assuming luck wasn't involved which of course it may be) would be that I'm a fucking gambling genius!:eek::eek::cool:


    And I know I'm not because I still watch the occasional old episode of Dr Who.:embarassed (Among other things)


    * yes yes betnod excepted.
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2015
  8. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    It's not often someone says this on a gambling forum I suspect.

    No,not,"I'm actually a ladyboy",but

    I've lost nearly all interest in this thread already as it's got off to too good a start!

    See,the problem is that if it now makes a profit,many gamblers will say that it was just luck at the beginning.

    And that's fair enough.

    But it defeats the whole point.

    But there's at least another reason for my lack of enthusiasm which I may divulge at some point.Something that would make my 'need' for this thread moot anyway.

    Anyway ,Durham are playing Yorkshire this weekend in what's obviously a crucial game- a win for Yorkshire would be a huge step towards retaining the title-and so I will keep it going a bit longer at least.

    Bet 365

    Durham 2-1 CC1. £100



    Yorks CC1 6/4, Ostersunds 15/8. £40


    Yorks. CC1 6/4, Jonkopings 8/13, Cork City ( no price available as too early in morning but the next price shown this morning,about 11-4 I'd have thought

    £20

    Yorks ,Malmo 5-2,Jonkopings 8/13. £20. As previous bet but Elfsborg 5-1 instead of Malmo £12


    Warwickshire CC1 6-1 gen. £30



    I really don't think any of these prices are value personally.

    (Just to be clear,I'm not a ladyboy)
  9. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Actually it's just occurred to me that this situation could be an opportune time for me to make a brief point about gambling threads on forums ...or at least the way I bet on threads.

    You see,in real life there's NO WAY I would do any of the bets I've just done.

    That's not really the optimum way to do what I do ( in my opinion of course).Not by a long way.

    So why don't I give the bets I would do?

    Because in real life I would be introducing other markets eg the Brazilian A League and also Rugby League and CC Div 2 and the Irish Division 1.And I would also have no qualms about betting on Goteborg again before betting on Malmo thus,in the case of the Brazilian league,prolonging the length of the thread and in the other cases simply making things more complicated and,if I miss a bet etc,more risky/ complicated/ time consuming.
    (In fact in real life I already have over a dozen bets on these markets)

    And the problem with that is that irl I know that I won't be missing bets because I couldn't be bothered to get up in time as I have a financial incentive not to,and I know that I am prepared in certain circumstances to let bets 'ride' a bit longer than I might on a forum and I would also ,at the end of the summer season,should the situation warrant it,combine hedge bets with football bets for the coming winter season etc etc...

    But the most important reason for ,say ,betting a single on Durham at this stage is because of my experience on gambling forums.

    There are many gamblers who for reasons I fail to understand would be all too prepared to claim that if this thread loses then it proves I don't know what I'm talking about etc etc etc.

    So if this thread makes a profit it's luck and if it now loses then I don't know what I'm talking about.

    Hence my bets are safe and boring.

    (Anyway as I say I may well not be going much further regardless)
  10. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Extra £10 on Warwickshire CC1 at 6-1 general


    ( Durham available at 9-4 Lads so the 2s hopefully not value)
  11. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,951
    Hotspur, without wishing to sound rude, have you ever considered stopping trying to second guess what people will think of you in any given situation based on the outcome of your bets (can't do this, people might think this, can't do that, people might think that, won't bet on this, people might accuse me of this, etc. etc. etc.), and instead just putting up your bets and letting your results speak for themselves?
    Colbro likes this.
  12. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    Hi rcgills,long time no speak.

    First I'm glad you wrote your post.90% of the time I don't read posts on my threads and this is a good example of why I dont.

    If I hadn't seen it I wouldn't feel any need to answer it and thereby risk a reply to my reply and then find myself discussing a subject I feel is trivial.

    Anyway the fact is Ive seen your comment and Colbro likes it thus I simply have to answer or else I may never forgive myself.*


    NO is the short answer rcgills.


    I'm not sure right now how much I care to elaborate.

    All I will say right now is, on this particular forum ODM often makes one thing abundantly clear-" ......if anyone doesn't like it they can fuck off".

    Now I would never say anything like that to anyone,least of all someone who is being polite,but ,forgive me,I'm bound to say that no one needs to read ANYTHING I post.edit Especially if it's on my own thread Id have thought

    I would have thought by now you'd know what to expect?

    I would also add that it's no doubt easy for you to make such a post. But the way I was treated on gambling forums was nothing short of disgusting.

    I have received more fucking abuse on gambling forums than in the whole of the rest of my life put together.

    And from people who apparently thought I may be mentally ill at the time.

    And now,on a thread in which I'm fucking well demonstrating that one of the most sacrosanct beliefs in gambling is bollocks,I'm criticised for something that,compared to the fucking abuse I received on this very forum,is piffle.

    (Edit And for the benefit of any new members-NO,neither rcgills nor Colbro intervened.Says it all don't you think?)


    So NO I havnt considered it rcgills.Ok?


    But don't worry,I can't promise but I'm hoping that once August 8 th is here much of my desire to post on forums will be ended.:crossfingers


    * yes that was irony
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2015
    peterr likes this.
  13. hotspur

    hotspur Active Member

    Messages:
    2,215
    I hope I'm not acting in haste here but I think now is an opportune time to end this thread.
    That way no one need be further irritated by my posts

    Unfortunately I can't promise not to start another one before the beginning of the season but I really am hopeful,as I said before,that once the season starts I won't feel much 'need' to post.

    (One of the reasons I post on this forum as opposed to elsewhere is because this is the only forum that is relatively open- minded on the subject I post on.
    And I'm hopeful that it won't be too long before I can find a more suitable outlet .As no doubt you are.:crossfingers)


    Cheers
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2015
  14. rcgills

    rcgills Moderator

    Messages:
    3,951
    You spend so much time going round in circles, beating yourself up and worrying what people will think. If you want to prove your point, get on with it, post up what you're betting and let your results speak for themselves. Do that and I'll be the first on here to congratulate you if they're going well and to say unlucky if they're not.

    But as always seems to be the case with you, we get "I'd like to do this, but I can't because people would think that", "Even if I did it, I'd be accused of being lucky", "What I'm posting here isn't really what I'd bet on, but I have to post it because...", "This thread is no good because it's started off too well and people will think this of me".

    There's certainly a place on here for your style of betting, Thundercelt proved that in some style last season. I've no real interest in whether you prove yourself on here (or any other forum) or not. In the same way that no-one's forcing us to read, no-one's forcing you to post, but you obviously seem to want to, so that's what the forum is for. All I was politely suggesting was that you may care to get on with it rather than keep going round in circles.
  15. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,159
    Is there any chance you can show me where I should have intervened ?

    I can only assume that you are referring to this thread

    http://betnod.com/threads/antepost-soccer-betting-35-r-o-i.425/

    and I admit that I was very worried about you during that thread.

    As for your ideas and what you are trying to prove - well ThunderCelt has started to do that and you have been given due credit there

    Other than that I daren't say anything else lest you fly off the handle at some insult you think I may or may not have made.
  16. Seen

    Seen Moderator

    Messages:
    3,298
    You're doing no such thing. If you make a long-term profit then you have had value in the odds, it matters not whether those odds are shorter than what the bookies are offering. It really is as simple as that.

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