A grab bag of trainer based systems While waiting for the two year olds to get going in earnest. I’m not a huge believer in torturing lots of data to death to produce systems – the fact that an angle worked 3 years in a row in delivering profit can be meaningless noise in some cases especially with small sample sizes and big priced winners making any profit dependant on a single outlying result. Angles widely known to the general public might produce the same strike rate but weight of money drives prices down to a point where the angle is no longer profitable. A good system has a vampire like existence – in the shadows is fine but wider exposure can cause all sort of unpleasantness. Notwithstanding that there are certain angles that remain perennially worth exploring. The days since last run for certain types of races and certain types of horses is one that remains profitable year on year. Certain types of sires produce consistent returns on certain surfaces and at certain distances. Most commonly trainers being creatures of habit produce reasonably consistent strike rates year on year. Some angles become at first glance unprofitable over time but a little digging and filtering can produce twists that remain worthwhile. Hannon and Hughes might no longer produce worthwhile returns blindly following but certain subsets might be still worth noting for example. Certain trainers work wonders with older horses (4 and 5) in races that typically don’t favour older horses. Equipment changes, distance changes , class drops and class rises for certain trainers are all worth following. That’s what this is – trainer based angles. Flat only. Over two years old only. Races in Ireland and the UK only. Criteria for inclusion as a mini system is an expected strike rate of over 20%. Maximum odds no more than 10/1 in a fully formed market of less than 11 runners. Maximum odds of 20/1 in fields greater than 11 (few and far between). Stakes between 1 and 2 units. Suggested starting bank 250 units. I wont go into the angle itself as there are quite a few. Some are up and coming (in my view). Some are currently profitable and others are probably on the downswing but might still have some juice in them. I will post bets in future between 11.30 and 12.00 when markets are fairly formed. Will quote prices available with more than one bookmaker. No prices from joke outfits Sportingbet and Stan James. Without further ado. 1 Unit Unless Noted 16.05 Leicster Magic City 4/1 (Gen) 16.40 Leicster Azelle 2/1 (Gen) 17.15 Leicster Dolphin Village 7/1 (Gen)
2 losers and a non runner yesterday. Poor efforts both. 13.35 Newc Greenhead High 10/3 Tote & Fred 1.5 Units 15.15 Newc Beaumonts Party 4/1 Gen 15.55 Newc Lexington Place 8/1 Gen 17.00 Newc Mash Potato 5/1 Gen 6/1 B365
Better today. Lexington Place drifted out to 12s on the exchanges before the off but won a fairly hotly contested race in the end. Friday & Saturday 16.05 Leicster Magic City 4/1 (Gen) Unp -1 Unit 16.40 Leicster Azelle 2/1 (Gen) N/R 17.15 Leicster Dolphin Village 7/1 (Gen) Unp -1 Unit 13.35 Newc Greenhead High 10/3 Tote & Fred 1.5 Units Unp -1.5 Units 15.15 Newc Docs Legacy 9/4 Gen 2nd -1 Unit 15.15 Newc Beaumonts Party 4/1 Gen Won +4 Units 15.55 Newc Lexington Place 8/1 Gen Won +8 Units 17.00 Newc Mash Potato 5/1 Gen 6/1 B365 Won +5 Units Profit to date : 12.5 Units A few of interest from the Curragh tomorrow. Will give full update every Sunday.
Posting earlier than usual today. Not a full set of books up for the 14.10 yet but 10/3 unlikely to be bettered. 14.10 Curr Freedom Square 10/3 B365 & Lad 14.45 Curr Wanabee Better 11/4 Gen 3/1 B365 15.20 Curr Foxtrot Romeo 5/1 Gen 15.20 Curr Nephrite VC & Coral 10/3 16.20 Curr Montebell 8/1 Gen ½ Unit ½ Unit BFSP
Couple of places. The heavily supported Foxtrot Romeo the most disappointing run. 14.10 Curr Freedom Square 10/3 B365 & Lad Unp -1 Unit 14.45 Curr Wanabee Better 11/4 Gen 3/1 B365 2nd -1 Unit 15.20 Curr Foxtrot Romeo 5/1 Gen Unp -1 Unit 15.20 Curr Nephrite VC & Coral 10/3 2nd -1 Unit 16.20 Curr Montebell 8/1 Gen ½ Unit ½ Unit BFSP Unp -1 Unit Week W/L 3/10 Staked 13.5 Units Profit 7.5 Units 4 or 5 on shortlist from Gowran Park for tomorrow
15.55 Gowr Romantic Stroll 11/4 Skybet & VC 5/2 Gen 16.25 Gowr We’ll Go Walking ½ Unit BFSP ½ Unit 20/1 Gen 16.55 Gowr Days Ahead 4/1 Gen 16.55 Gowr South South West 5/1 B365 and WH (9/2 Fred and Lads)
Nice double priced winner with We’ll go walking winning a tight contest. Was nibbled at near the death and the BFSP (18.72 after commission) slipped below 20/1 but I won’t complain! 15.55 Gowr Romantic Stroll 11/4 Skybet & VC 5/2 Gen Unp -1 Unit 16.25 Gowr We’ll Go Walking ½ Unit BFSP ½ Unit 20/1 Gen Won +19.36 Units 16.55 Gowr Days Ahead 4/1 Gen Unp -1 Unit 16.55 Gowr South South West 5/1 B365 and WH (9/2 Fred and Lads) 3rd – 1 Unit
Part of the problem some have with lots of mini angles is you can end up with multiple selections in the same race – a good case in point being the 16.15. Not something that bothers me personally but it can be tough when multiple selections in the same race fail. I might bring the posting time forward – some of these are fairly heavily clipped already (most notably Carragold opening at 12s) and I was on Betfair with much better prices earlier on a handful also. 1 Unit Unless Noted 14.10 Pont Snooky 3/1 Gen 1.75 Units 15.10 Pont Flashlight 7/4 Gen 1.50 Units 15.10 Pont Polski Max 7/2 Gen (4/1 VC) 1.75 Units 15.40 Pont Mr Crystal BFSP ½ Unit 16.15 Pont Hit the Jackpot 4/1 Gen (9/2 Sporting, James & VC) 16.15 Pont Lady Loch 1.75 Units 13/2 Gen 16.15 Pont Las Verglas Star 0.50 Units 16/1 Gen 1 Unit BFSP 16.15 Pont Licence to Till 7/1 Gen 16.15 Pont Spanish Duke 5/1 WH & BY 17.15 Pont Carragold 8/1 Gen 17.15 Pont Cashpoint 9/1 Gen
I will quote prices from Sporting and SJ for information purposes only. Any winners will be settled at the lower general rate.
A winner in the 4.15 although it looked doubtful at one stage from reviewing the replay. 2 of the 3 biggest bets of the day won so particularly happy with that. 14.10 Pont Snooky 3/1 Gen 1.75 Units 3rd -1.75 Units 15.10 Pont Flashlight 7/4 Gen 1.50 Units 2nd – 1.50 Units 15.10 Pont Polski Max 7/2 Gen (4/1 VC) 1.75 Units Won +6.13 Units 15.40 Pont Mr Crystal BFSP ½ Unit Unp -0.50 Units 16.15 Pont Hit the Jackpot 4/1 Gen (9/2 Sporting, James & VC) Unp -1 Unit 16.15 Pont Lady Loch 1.75 Units 13/2 Gen Won +11.38 Units 16.15 Pont Las Verglas Star 0.50 Units 16/1 Gen 1 Unit BFSP 3rd – 1.50 Units 16.15 Pont Licence to Till 7/1 Gen Unp -1 Unit 16.15 Pont Spanish Duke 5/1 WH & BY Unp -1 Unit 17.15 Pont Carragold 8/1 Gen 2nd -1 Unit 17.15 Pont Cashpoint 9/1 Gen Unp -1 Unit Profit on Day +4.26 Units It will be a busy day tomorrow with 2 cards and lots of potential bets. I will probably post a few up tonight around 10.30 as I think a few will be priced up by most of the firms. I am also going to move the regular post time to between 10.30 and 11.00.
A lot fewer bets than I thought as most fell outside the price range. Missed some of the best prices most notably on Moviesta (6/1 and 11/2 this morning). 14.40 Nott Moviesta 7/2 Gen 17.10 Nott Dedebdeb 5/2 Gen 1.5 Units 17.10 Nott Eric the Grey 11/2 VC & WH (Also SJ)
Late for which apologies but this is on the drift to a price that has ben triggered 14.50 Catt Llewelyn BFSP (7/1 Gen Current) 1.5 Units
Firing blanks 14.40 Nott Moviesta 7/2 Gen Unp -1 Unit17.10 Nott Dedebdeb 5/2 Gen 1.5 Units 3rd -1.5 Units17.10 Nott Eric the Grey 11/2 VC & WH (Also SJ) 2nd -1 Unit 14.50 Catt Llewelyn BFSP (7/1 Gen Current) 1.5 Units 2nd -1.5 Unit Loss on Day 5 Units
Only flat races tomorrow are at Limerick - selections will be posted up slightly later to leave the markets cook a bit - posting between 12 and 12.30.
17.05 Lime Mount McLeod 9/2 Gen 17.40 Lime Toureen Legend 7/1 B365 & Sky 18.10 Lime Legendary Times 10/1 Gen (12/1 B365 , 11/1 Sky) 19.10 Lime Waydownsouth 7/2 Gen
4 runs fit for Tescos only. The market drifts before the off had me prepared. No flat racing today. Should be a few Saturday.
