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World Cup 2014 Outright Betting

Discussion in 'World Cup 2014 Betting' started by Punter, May 28, 2014.

  1. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    7,017
    1.PNG

    Updated odds...
    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner

    Who you on then? Who have you been meaning to back?

    I've been piling into the 6 about Argentina. I'm looking forward to watching Messi and Aguero perform. If somebody gave me a huge free bet single, i'd be forced to stick it on the Argies.

    I cant rule out any of the top 4 in the betting, they are all in with a great chance but it's the Argies out of the 4 that i'm going to go with.

    Looking outside of the top 4, for other teams that could reach the final, i like Portugal. They do have arguably the worlds best player and what with Portuguese being the official language of Brazil, it'll hardly feel like a foreign country to them. I've been taking average odds of 34 about them with lay price in mind. I've been taking 30's about Uruguay with a view to a lay price too.

    I'll continue chipping away at the Argies from now until the start.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    10,113
    I'm on Belgium at 33/1 fr0m before they qualified (pretty sure I mentioned it somewhere on here). Bit disappointed cos I thought I was on at 50s but the confusion was £15 quid at 33s returns around £500 profit which I suppose is where I got the figure 5 in my head.

    Looking at my betfair account, I appear to have a tenner each (and don't ask me why - might have been strategy or maybe some kind of drunken logic) on Uraguay, Chile and Columbia.

    By the way, your logic about Portugal is bollox Punter (laughing emoticon not working). Would you step of the plane in Australia and feel like you weren't in a foreign country?

    I wouldn't.
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    10,113
    I'm on Belgium at 33/1 fr0m before they qualified (pretty sure I mentioned it somewhere on here). Bit disappointed cos I thought I was on at 50s but the confusion was £15 quid at 33s returns around £500 profit which I suppose is where I got the figure 5 in my head.

    Looking at my betfair account, I appear to have a tenner each (and don't ask me why - might have been strategy or maybe some kind of drunken logic) on Uraguay, Chile and Columbia.

    By the way, your logic about Portugal is bollox Punter (laughing emoticon not working). Would you step of the plane in Australia and feel like you weren't in a foreign country?

    I wouldn't.
  4. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    7,017
    No i wouldn't, but i'd feel a lot more comfortable in Aus' than i would in Qatar, knowing the same lingo. That's all i was trying to get at.
    I just think they will be comfortable and confident in Brasil. I'm not strong on my history but didn't the Portuguese colonize the place? Well that's just another term for conquering it.
    One the points regarding this, that i was originally trying to get at but couldn't be arsed earlier on was the importance of neutral support. Portugal will be very well supported out there, their own fans and Brazilians (when their team aren't playing), one of the things i see as a big positive. Positive wont win you trophies alone, the football you play will, but it's better to have positives than negatives and i'm confident that in all of Portugal's games, they will have the majority of support inside the stadium.

    Footballing wise, they've not got a bad squad and i can see them going some distance.
  5. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

    Messages:
    3,096
    Argentina interest me, more than Brazil tbh, but you won't find me backing Brazil at that price. Germany I can see if a European team is going to do it, but I'm sceptical, as history says it won't happen. I don't think thats as important as it was but although I'm tempted, with the weight of history against them I'd want more than 6/1.
    Spain no chance for me. They've had their run of success & I'm sure someone will come up with examples of runs like that continuing but not for me. 6 years or so of success & thats it IMO.
    Uruguay I like, & they'll be having some of me. Might look at the Dutch at that price. England and Italy will, for me, bith be happy with a draw first up & that'll be the end of both of them if thats the case, as neither will get enough from the other games. Winner takes all in that fixture
  6. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,791
    I did my works prediction comp today and Argentina came out tops for me Swoops.
    Like you say Germany have a decent side but seeing as they aren't getting any younger it is a big concern for me.
    I still think Spain are Europe's best hope even though they might now be passed their best because the tippy tappy stuff might pay dividends in the high temperatures.

    Brazil being the hosts will make the semis then I suppose anything could happen, but when you look at their squad with let's say Argentina's then you see they are lacking in depth.

    I have a sneaky feeling though one of the African nations will go on a good run like Ghana did in SA and might go even one step further into the semis, Ivory coast look the most likely bet (presuming they bought Yaya a cake) and at 150/1 I reckon something could be made of that as they progress because they have the muscle to beat anyone in that group.
  7. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,294
    Ive been backing Argentina steadily for a wee while now. Their midfield and forwards are an amazing squad. Their defence is the only weakness imo but if they concede 2 hopefully they can score 3
  8. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,791
    How can you call it weak with Martin Demichelis in there lol
    To be fair he had a belting last half of the season, anybody know if he's been picked or not?, I know he was in the provisional squad a couple of weeks ago.
  9. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,160
    No outright betting for me simply because climate will play a huge part in this competition. Its technically winter in Brasil and the more southern cities the weather will be more pleasant to play in. The northern cities close to the equator will prove difficult to play in and will take a lot out of players - especially if they play at 1pm. It won't be like Mexico in 1986 where all teams were equally disadvantaged playing at strange times and all venues bar one were at altitude.

    This was the one big lesson from last years confederations cup where for example Spain struggled in the final after having played a tough semi final and extra time in Fortaleza three days earlier.
  10. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,160
    Although having said that and then gone to look at the draw - Argentina do have a good draw based solely on the venues they will play at (assuming they win their group - even if they finish second venue wise only it almost as good)
  11. ThunderCelt

    ThunderCelt National League Punter

    Messages:
    1,528
    I can't add much to what's already been said. Argentina look strong, and Brazil will have learned about being hosts from the Confederations Cup.

    Of the bigger European sides, I think Spain have peaked, while Italy possibly have their weakest squad for a while. That leaves the Germans, and I'll take advantage of sky's money back offer if Brazil or Argentina win, while covering both.

    ODM mentioned Chile and Belgium; both might be dark horses as I like their first XIs but worry about squad depth.
  12. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,791
    Cracking goal from Sturridge, reminded me of his one for Citeh against Blackburn a few yrs back.
  13. swooperman

    swooperman Resident nob

    Messages:
    3,096
    I think Belgium have a great squad, & in a European WC they'd be worth a shout, but over there?
  14. Colbro

    Colbro Well-Known Member

    Messages:
    2,160
    Thinking aloud here but looking at it purely from a venue point of view winners of group E ie france could be interesting to follow. France have one game in a northern venue (against Switzerland) then the two others are in the more favourable south. They should have a reasonably straightforward (I know I know) last 16 game before facing prob Germany who will have had three group games in the north.

    Get through the quarters the will prob face Brasil who 4 days earlier will have player a quarter in the north too.

    Like I said .. just thinking aloud here

    Just to add Switzerland have a terrible draw venue wise in this group so I don't think they will win the group
  15. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,791
    Correct Swoops, it's over there and they have no chance, saying that I wouldn't say it's a great squad but they do have half a dozen decent players but no strength in depth, which to win a world cup u need.

    In my day they never did but these day's they do lol.
  16. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,791
    Seriously though, if Belgium reach the quarters they have done well, I can't see them getting further than that.
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    10,113
    I think we can safely conclude that Slick was on the piss yesterday.
  18. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,294
    Loads of bets placed so far so im going to post them here rather than create my iwn thread.

    spain group goals over 5.5 @ 17/20
    Belgium group goals over 5.5 evens
    england total group points = 7 @ 5/1
    Argentina to score 16 or more goals @ 3/1
    Argentina to win 3 group games @ evens
    progba top french scorer @ 12/1
    france group goals over 5.5 @ 6/5
    Holland total points = 3 @ 5/1
    Holland goals 0-1 @ 12/1
    Portugal group goals over 4.5 @ 10/11
    Portugal total goals over 10 @ 100/30
    Portugal to win 3 group matches @ 11/1
    Higuain top goalscorer @ 20/1
    Higuain/Argentina double @ 50/1
  19. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,294
    Columbia 4/5
    France 4/5
    Portugal 13/5
    England 11/5
    Chile 4/1

    Group winners - singles and perms
  20. Topdog

    Topdog Moderator

    Messages:
    7,277
    Surprise package for me will be Chile

    Each Way @ 50-1 [Paddy Power]

    Odds will shorten big time if they qualify from a tough group

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